Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
74 0x740b…aa1a world 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$99
tech 5% +$74
sports 3% +$18
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.5% +4.5% 67% 50% -19.9%
≤30d 8 +38.5% +25.3% 75% 62% -10.2%
≤90d 8 +38.5% +25.3% 75% 62% -10.2%
all 8 +38.5% +25.3% 75% 62% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.3% 62% -10.2%
10% +13.3% 50% -18.8%
15% +2.4% 50% -26.6%
20% -7.7% 38% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$184 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 21 $22 +$9 +39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $45 +$7 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $57 +$5 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $194 +$248 +128%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $150 −$13 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $399 −$354 -89%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $25 +$18 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $51 +$74 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 98¢ $62 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $240 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $202 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $30 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $4 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $35 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $40 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $28 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $50 4d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $22 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $57 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $137 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $44 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $9 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 24¢ $15 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $100 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $130 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 95¢ $125 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 34¢ $26 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $150 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $150 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 43¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records