Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
74 0x7409…65a6 other 1196 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$41,063 (+8%) realized +$41,063 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate75%898W / 298L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$668est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,075
7 days−$4,858
14 days−$4,165
30 days+$3,522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$20,025
sports 29% +$15,506
crypto 3% −$1,127
world 1% +$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 13% -11.8%
≤30d 178 +13.9% +3.0% 67% 30% -8.2%
≤90d 1012 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 35% -3.5%
all 1196 +22.8% +11.1% 75% 37% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 37% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 25% -13.0%
15% -9.2% 18% -21.4%
20% -18.1% 13% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$70 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41,063
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses898 / 298
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$668
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1196 / 1196
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$458
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1196 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5,622 −$129 -2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,201 +$33 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,055 −$136 -1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $184 +$4 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $394 +$4 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,001 +$35 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,808 −$2 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $116 +$13 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $708 −$157 -22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4,037 −$217 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $583 +$251 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +84%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15,019 −$2,458 -16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,399 −$2 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,276 +$78 +2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $514 +$45 +9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $932 +$58 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,221 −$2,293 -54%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $367 −$235 -64%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,012 +$644 +64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,168 +$17 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $376 +$8 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $566 −$131 -23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,318 −$97 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,565 −$405 -9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,440 −$1 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $232 +$6 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $45 +$11 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,508 −$574 -13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $673 −$51 -8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,119 −$397 -19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,200 −$29 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $431 +$25 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,768 +$124 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,670 +$568 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $383 +$13 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $307 +$35 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4,001 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,170 −$1 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,478 +$134 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14,871 −$1,059 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,903 −$29 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 88¢ $2,820 46m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $1,303 46m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $8,060 46m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,009 49m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $358 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,009 49m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $2,009 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,009 49m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $914 49m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $759 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,009 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $76 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $507 56m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 82¢ $921 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,783 56m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $1,932 56m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 86¢ $1,752 56m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $1,930 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,008 58m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $2,006 58m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $847 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $508 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $187 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $398 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 97¢ $19 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 97¢ $164 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $394 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,036 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2,001 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records