Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x7408…6197 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate72%29W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$20
14 days+$21
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$38
tech 8% +$1
sports 5% −$32
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.0% -1.4% 100% 33% +1.8%
≤30d 9 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 22% -3.1%
≤90d 25 +4.3% -5.6% 80% 24% -5.9%
all 40 +1.1% -8.6% 72% 25% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 25% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 18% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 5% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses29 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage221d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $113 $110 −$3 (-3%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $27 +$1 +3%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $82 +$18 +22%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $177 +$1 +0%
YOM FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 07 $49 +$1 +2%
YOM FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 07 $66 +$1 +1%
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 28 $173 +$2 +1%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $106 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $87 +$33 +38%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $69 −$21 -30%
Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Nexus FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 23 $99 +$1 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $64 +$21 +32%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 24 $55 −$20 -37%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 23 $19 +$1 +8%
OpenGradient FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 23 $15 +$5 +35%
Will USD.AI launch a token on April 21? Apr 22 $9 +$1 +7%
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 17 $28 +$2 +6%
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 16 $28 +$1 +5%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 13 $17 −$2 -9%
OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 11 $20 $0 +2%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 10 $13 −$1 -8%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 10 $16 −$1 -9%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $54 +$6 +11%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Apr 01 $16 +$4 +24%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 05 $127 −$31 -25%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Mar 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? Mar 02 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 02 $54 −$1 -1%
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 02 $10 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $5 −$4 -79%
Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 03 $20 $0 -0%
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.07? Jan 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Elsa FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 20 $10 $0 +3%
Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jan 19 $50 +$8 +16%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $50 +$17 +35%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 1h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 1h
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3d
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 4d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 9d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 9d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 9d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 78¢ $24 9d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $10 9d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $29 9d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $10 9d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $177 13d
YOM FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $66 20d
YOM FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $49 20d
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 29d
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 29d
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 29d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 30d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 30d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 30d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 30d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $37 30d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 30d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 51¢ $36 30d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 30d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.64 · official $188.64 (match) · 122 history records