Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7403…1b63
crypto · 112 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$68 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses46 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)104 / 112
History coverage95d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 8 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$112
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 92¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $19 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$5 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $12 +$4 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2 $0 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $31 +$4 +13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $14 +$4 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% −$42
crypto 12% +$12
other 7% $0
politics 4% −$37
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 82¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $13 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 44¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 43¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 80¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 50¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 80¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $1 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 62¢ $2 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 71¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $1 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $2 9h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $1 11h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $1 12h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $6 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -65.2% -68.5% 23% 19% -42.9%
≤30d 86 +0.6% -8.9% 45% 38% -8.5%
≤90d 103 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 35% -12.7%
all 104 -3.9% -13.0% 44% 35% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 35% -12.8%
10% -21.3% 30% -21.1%
15% -28.9% 23% -28.7%
20% -35.9% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.74 · official $21.77 (match) · 458 history records