Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7402…1546 crypto 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-32%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%71W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day81.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 42% -47.2%
≤30d 153 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 42% -47.2%
≤90d 153 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 42% -47.2%
all 153 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 42% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 42% -47.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 39% -52.3%
15% -30.9% 33% -56.9%
20% -37.7% 29% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses71 / 82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day81.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? Up 50¢ 50¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 50¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.05 · official $38.05 (match) · 280 history records