Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x73fb…f8d4 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+11%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$17
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 86% +3.2%
≤30d 7 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 86% +3.2%
≤90d 7 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 86% +3.2%
all 7 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 86% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.6% 86% +3.2%
10% +26.2% 71% -6.6%
15% +14.0% 57% -15.7%
20% +2.9% 43% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $90 +$2 +2%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$10 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 59m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $90 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $3 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 11h
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 11h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $1 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.67 · official $29.24 (match) · 19 history records