Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x73f9…9e48
sports · 13 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage270d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 4 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Curaçao 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$2
economics 38% −$10
other 23% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +60.6% +45.3% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤30d 8 +60.6% +45.3% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤90d 9 +42.8% +29.2% 44% 44% -45.9%
all 9 +42.8% +29.2% 44% 44% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.2% 44% -45.9%
10% +16.8% 44% -51.0%
15% +5.5% 44% -55.8%
20% -4.8% 44% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.86 · official $3.86 (match) · 20 history records