Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x73f7…b51d
politics · 55 markets active 32d ago
0.0score
+$94,489 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$94,047 · open +$443
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$6,614
Realized+$94,047
Unrealized+$443
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)48 / 55
Avg bet$7,009
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 7 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 74¢ $4,380 $5,330 +$950 (+22%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 83¢ 80¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $190 $213 +$23 (+12%)
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $518 $12 −$505 (-98%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 29¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $641 $0 −$641 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $17,971 $0 −$17,971 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Apr 21 $643 −$641 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $346 −$63 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 14 $18,237 −$17,971 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $18,359 +$35,060 +191%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $100 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 28 $350 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator? Apr 14 $4,952 −$4,952 -100%
Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator? Apr 14 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64 Nov 21 $500 −$500 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 Nov 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Nov 21 $2,320 −$2,320 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4 Nov 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,010 +$692 +68%
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election? Nov 06 $20,274 +$11,165 +55%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 03 $17,000 −$2,350 -14%
Will Trump say "latino" or "latina" during Univision town hall? Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 17 $14,875 −$2,268 -15%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 13 $114 −$33 -29%
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024? Oct 13 $6,500 −$6,500 -100%
Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 10 $1,000 +$43 +4%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Aug 10 $21,831 −$21,831 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 06 $13,080 −$13,080 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104 Aug 02 $2,350 −$635 -27%
TikTok sale announced before August? Aug 02 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Fed rate cut by July 31? Aug 02 $8,320 −$8,320 -100%
DNC open convention? Aug 02 $387 +$155 +40%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Jul 26 $3,500 −$1,607 -46%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $5,819 −$825 -14%
Lettuce vs. Biden - Who lasts longer? Jul 21 $701 −$701 -100%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 21 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Biden not drop out by July 26? Jul 21 $1,000 +$2,978 +298%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 21 $11,000 +$3,772 +34%
Will 50 Cent attend the RNC? Jul 19 $7,232 +$624 +9%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will another man win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $28,820 −$15,014 -52%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $4,896 −$4,896 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 17 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
Will Republican VP nominee be a woman? Jul 16 $3,000 +$762 +25%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 16 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 16 $24,997 −$19,024 -76%
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 16 $58,592 +$171,321 +292%
Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 15 $55,000 +$13,157 +24%
Fed rate cut by June 12? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Dallas Stars win the 2024 Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 85% +$83,837
world 8% +$30,011
economics 4% −$17,340
other 2% +$681
tech 1% −$2,000
sports 0% −$701
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $4,380 31d
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $500 31d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $500 31d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 31d
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 31d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -72.7% -75.3% 0% 0% -98.7%
all 48 -35.7% -41.8% 25% 21% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.8% 21% +12.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.4% 21% +2.1%
15% -52.5% 15% -7.7%
20% -57.1% 10% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,613.94 · official $6,613.94 (match) · 807 history records