Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
73 0x73f4…158e sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,387 (+4%) realized +$8,278 · open −$1,891
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate71%52W / 21L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$1,929per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$849est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$237
7 days+$2,939
14 days+$3,826
30 days+$5,738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,847
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.8% -21.1% 62% 31% -3.8%
≤30d 73 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 33% -5.9%
≤90d 73 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 33% -5.9%
all 73 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 33% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 33% -5.9%
10% -16.7% 25% -14.9%
15% -24.7% 19% -23.1%
20% -32.1% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$2,602) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$509 vs −$988 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$8,278
Unrealized−$1,891
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses52 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$849
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1,929
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 74¢ 100¢ $300 $405 +$105 (+35%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 30¢ 0¢ $2,000 $3 −$1,997 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,603 +$89 +6%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,103 +$111 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $901 +$38 +4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,501 −$2,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,178 −$2,150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,731 +$1,783 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,229 −$760 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,024 −$3,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9,675 +$3,834 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8,031 +$1,656 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,459 +$3,541 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,700 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $813 +$926 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $905 +$18 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,296 +$1,751 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,005 +$158 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2,579 +$3 +0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,013 −$996 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $451 +$49 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $3,206 +$197 +6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,325 −$1,788 -77%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,895 +$1,986 +69%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $103 +$563 +549%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $38 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $1,030 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,224 −$1,200 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $507 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2,501 +$37 +2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $2,115 +$665 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2,331 −$2,328 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3,048 +$939 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2,913 +$492 +17%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3,563 +$92 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 28 $3,502 +$71 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3,448 +$103 +3%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,002 +$62 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $3,401 +$31 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $3,059 +$339 +11%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,709 +$339 +12%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,001 +$20 +1%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,602 +$64 +2%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,444 +$122 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $101 50m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $101 50m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $101 50m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $1,021 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 29¢ $1,021 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $200 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 91¢ $100 25h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $300 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $300 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $100 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $100 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $100 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $100 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $100 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $100 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 96¢ $100 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 95¢ $100 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.55 · official $408.55 (match) · 261 history records