Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73f3…4cfd other 403 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+1%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%190W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$12
14 days+$62
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$76
sports 11% +$198
crypto 5% −$14
world 1% −$91
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -30.3% -36.9% 43% 32% -10.1%
≤30d 126 -2.1% -11.4% 49% 41% -15.7%
≤90d 342 +2.3% -7.5% 46% 42% -10.2%
all 402 +3.3% -6.6% 47% 43% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 43% -10.4%
10% -15.5% 38% -19.0%
15% -23.7% 33% -26.8%
20% -31.1% 26% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses190 / 212
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)402 / 403
History coverage108d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $213 +$38 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $391 +$17 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $58 −$56 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 −$22 -89%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$19 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $311 +$42 +14%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$14 +92%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$45 +149%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $260 +$8 +3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $158 +$95 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 20m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $136 31m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 46m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 46m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $115 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $207 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $191 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $201 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $200 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 17h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.91 · official $9.91 (match) · 845 history records