Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
73 0x73f0…9e0c crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$566 (+38%) realized +$520 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$321
other 21% −$70
world 11% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.3% -2.9% 30% 30% -0.5%
≤30d 23 +7.3% -2.9% 30% 30% -0.5%
≤90d 23 +7.3% -2.9% 30% 30% -0.5%
all 23 +7.3% -2.9% 30% 30% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 30% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 30% -10.1%
15% -20.7% 26% -18.7%
20% -28.5% 26% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$36 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized+$520
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 29¢ 50¢ $95 $161 +$66 (+69%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $40 $78 +$38 (+94%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $70 $58 −$12 (-17%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $60 $18 −$42 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $64 −$40 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$30 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$143 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$4 -13%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $82 −$43 -53%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $82 −$53 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $84 +$147 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $95 +$33 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$128 +449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$121 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$88 +168%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $84 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $84 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $53 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $175 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 6¢ $39 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $84 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $128 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.19 · official $401.19 (match) · 58 history records