Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

73 0x73f0…eed3 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$35 (-4%) realized −$35 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%5W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-33.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-26.9%	-33.8%	25%	25%	-24.4%
≤30d	20	-26.9%	-33.8%	25%	25%	-24.4%
≤90d	20	-26.9%	-33.8%	25%	25%	-24.4%
all	20	-26.9%	-33.8%	25%	25%	-24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.8%	25%	-24.4%
10%	-40.2%	25%	-31.6%
15%	-46.0%	15%	-38.2%
20%	-51.3%	15%	-44.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late -29% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$19 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.55 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$35

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses5 / 15

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage5d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$2	-47%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$52	−$6	-11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$23	−$9	-39%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$26	+$22	+84%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$26	+$33	+124%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$18	−$17	-96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$26	−$16	-60%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$32	−$16	-50%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$16	$0	-2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$16	−$15	-94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$16	−$4	-24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$16	−$15	-95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$52	−$50	-95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 15	$57	−$6	-10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$52	−$36	-69%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$183	−$75	-41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$61	+$21	+35%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$53	+$65	+124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$60	+$20	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	6¢	$3	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	48¢	$23	1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$26	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	48¢	$23	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	29¢	$14	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$23	5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$26	7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$48	7h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$26	9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$26	9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$59	9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$26	20h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	66¢	$18	22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	13¢	$16	23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$16	24h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	23¢	$16	28h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	18¢	$13	28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$9	28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	31h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$16	31h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$16	44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$16	44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	12¢	$12	44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	14¢	$16	46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$16	46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$52	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	61¢	$52	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	19¢	$16	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records