Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73ee…eea9 weather 394 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate78%291W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day73.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$118
14 days+$219
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 +59.2% +44.1% 73% 19% -7.1%
≤30d 375 +20.0% +8.6% 78% 17% -8.9%
≤90d 375 +20.0% +8.6% 78% 17% -8.9%
all 375 +20.0% +8.6% 78% 17% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 17% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 13% -17.6%
15% -11.3% 10% -25.6%
20% -20.0% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$716
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses291 / 84
Open positions19
Markets (closed)375 / 394
History coverage22d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $212 $218 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? No 94¢ 97¢ $107 $110 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? No 74¢ 96¢ $67 $86 +$19 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? No 69¢ 10¢ $28 $4 −$24 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 54¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+182%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +317%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $160 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +456%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$5 +1076%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $305 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$4 +2731%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $224 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +733%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $82 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $8 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 16¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 17¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 18¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 50¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $716.37 · official $713.50 (match) · 1782 history records