Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73ed…a337 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-16%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$19
crypto 45% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -51.1% -55.7% 0% 0% -36.2%
≤30d 4 -51.1% -55.7% 0% 0% -36.2%
≤90d 4 -51.1% -55.7% 0% 0% -36.2%
all 4 -51.1% -55.7% 0% 0% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.7% 0% -36.2%
10% -60.0% 0% -42.3%
15% -63.8% 0% -47.9%
20% -67.4% 0% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$1 -4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 51m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Czechia 75¢ $30 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $15 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 74¢ $30 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.38 · official $49.38 (match) · 8 history records