Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73e2…6c85 world 11 markets active 2d ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-8%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$26
sports 19% −$44
crypto 1% −$5
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 50% -51.5%
≤90d 11 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 64% -17.2%
all 11 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 64% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 64% -17.2%
10% -22.6% 36% -25.2%
15% -30.0% 27% -32.4%
20% -36.9% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage73d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$12 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 27 $32 +$6 +20%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $10 +$16 +155%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $65 −$44 -67%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 08 $58 +$7 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $47 +$12 +25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $28 +$18 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $9 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $40 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $30 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? SELL No 92¢ $23 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 79¢ $20 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 43d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? SELL No 64¢ $39 49d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY No 53¢ $32 53d
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 56d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $26 57d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $10 61d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 58¢ $12 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 42¢ $10 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 39¢ $20 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 44¢ $45 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL No 51¢ $65 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 27¢ $8 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 51¢ $50 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 82¢ $58 69d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 66¢ $47 69d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 75d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records