Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73e0…ea3a other 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 709d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+2%) realized +$64 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate76%52W / 16L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$149
sports 23% −$13
crypto 0% −$14
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 4% -7.6%
≤30d 53 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 4% -7.6%
≤90d 57 -6.8% -15.7% 89% 4% -8.0%
all 68 -19.3% -27.0% 76% 4% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 4% -8.1%
10% -34.0% 1% -16.9%
15% -40.3% 1% -24.9%
20% -46.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

709d coverage
Net worth$846
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses52 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage709d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? No 95¢ 100¢ $808 $846 +$37 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals Jun 26 $377 +$23 +6%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $38 +$1 +4%
Spread: United States (-4.5) Jun 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Isidro Pitta: 2+ assists Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $197 +$3 +1%
Virgil van Dijk: 2+ assists Jun 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Christ Inao Oulaï: 2+ goals Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3+ goals Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $245 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $391 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Alexandrova Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $194 +$6 +3%
Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals Jun 25 $143 +$7 +5%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals Jun 25 $48 +$2 +5%
César Huerta: 2+ assists Jun 25 $62 +$2 +4%
Oh Hyeongyu: 2+ goals Jun 25 $95 +$5 +5%
Evidence Makgopa: 2+ goals Jun 25 $439 +$11 +3%
Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots Jun 25 $729 +$21 +3%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $147 +$4 +2%
Mohammed Muntari: 2+ goals Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +3%
Breel Embolo: 3+ goals Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $49 +$1 +2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $144 +$6 +4%
Cyle Larin: 2+ goals Jun 24 $425 +$25 +6%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $33 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: McNally vs Arango Jun 24 $45 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Yoane Wissa: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ goals Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Cretu vs. Santillan: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Draxl vs. Bertola: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $31 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Isidro Pitta: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 8h
Isidro Pitta: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $48 8h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goals BUY No 94¢ $47 9h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY United States 96¢ $50 9h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $49 9h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $49 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $845.75 · official $845.75 (match) · 218 history records