Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73df…daf3 crypto 1576 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-3%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%791W / 785L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$10
14 days+$17
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -11.1% -19.5% 39% 39% -15.6%
≤30d 351 -6.1% -15.1% 43% 43% -18.2%
≤90d 1566 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -13.9%
all 1576 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 50% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 49% -22.1%
15% -29.3% 45% -29.6%
20% -36.2% 41% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses791 / 785
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1576 / 1576
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1576 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records