Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73d6…ed4c crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,718 (-5%) realized −$1,718 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$804per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,520
7 days−$1,846
14 days−$3,592
30 days−$3,592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,592
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -42.4% -47.9% 33% 33% -42.9%
≤30d 40 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 48% -19.7%
≤90d 40 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 48% -19.7%
all 40 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 48% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 48% -19.7%
10% -2.9% 35% -27.4%
15% ← realistic here -12.2% 30% -34.4%
20% -20.9% 28% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,102) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +77% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$532 vs −$712 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage11d
Avg bet$804
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $645 −$625 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $832 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $311 +$350 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $414 +$378 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $211 −$199 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $737 −$700 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $720 +$502 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $404 +$74 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $596 −$580 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $937 −$900 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $513 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $2,301 −$2,212 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $627 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $211 +$866 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $826 +$729 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$139 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $2,944 +$616 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $58 +$724 +1240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $1,445 +$1,171 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $1,212 +$197 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $916 +$286 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $343 +$60 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $1,141 −$1,141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $4,266 −$4,266 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $2,176 +$2,194 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $1,905 +$1,315 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $209 +$332 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $1,224 +$471 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $1,102 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $706 +$103 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $331 +$114 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records