Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73d6…4e5a crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+9%) realized +$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days+$0
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 53 -15.7% -23.7% 34% 34% -5.8%
≤90d 53 -15.7% -23.7% 34% 34% -5.8%
all 65 -17.7% -25.5% 34% 34% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 34% -6.9%
10% -32.7% 31% -15.8%
15% -39.2% 29% -23.9%
20% -45.1% 28% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$17 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage114d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $205 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$31 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$25 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $89 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +77%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$28 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $88 −$52 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$28 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $68 +$166 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$49 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$18 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $88 −$13 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $126 +$135 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$22 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $119 +$32 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$47 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$44 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $37 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $58 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $59 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $59 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records