Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x73d5…2447 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 38% +$3
politics 10% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +1.2% -8.4% 47% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.2% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage460d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $4 −$1 -30%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $24 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $13 $0 -0%
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? Jul 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $6 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $4 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $4 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $4 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $21 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $10 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $23 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $34 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $3 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $4 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $1 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $31 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $3 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $34 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.47 · official $2.48 (match) · 175 history records