Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:30:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73d5…74c8 sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 653d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$616 (+7%) realized +$571 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%93W / 106L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$74
14 days−$128
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$9
other 26% −$146
politics 19% +$869
crypto 10% +$31
world 8% −$41
economics 8% −$93
tech 2% −$4
culture 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +3.9% -6.0% 53% 40% -15.1%
≤30d 49 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 39% -10.6%
≤90d 61 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 43% +1.3%
all 199 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 34% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 34% -2.2%
10% -26.5% 26% -11.6%
15% -33.6% 18% -20.1%
20% -40.1% 9% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

653d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized+$571
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses93 / 106
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)199 / 207
History coverage653d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $201 $262 +$61 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $174 $140 −$34 (-20%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $88 $91 +$2 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $42 $59 +$17 (+40%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $74 +$26 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 +$7 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$22 +291%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $14 +$36 +248%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $64 −$63 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $77 +$3 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$65 +650%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$11 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$24 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$22 +73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 18 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $117 −$34 -29%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $189 −$55 -29%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $170 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$24 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -84%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $50 +$11 +23%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $22 +$9 +42%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $101 +$52 +52%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $90 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $41 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 27h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $56 27h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 27h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 27h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $80 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 96¢ $19 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 96¢ $29 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 96¢ $29 32h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $63 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $37 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 66¢ $52 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.52 · official $570.52 (match) · 495 history records