Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73d5…be1c other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-40%) realized −$67 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$88
world 15% −$40
sports 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 18% -51.7%
≤30d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 18% -51.7%
≤90d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 18% -51.7%
all 11 -1.2% -10.6% 18% 18% -51.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 18% -51.7%
10% -19.2% 18% -56.3%
15% -27.0% 18% -60.5%
20% -34.2% 18% -64.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$21 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$81 +786%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.88 · official $19.00 (match) · 25 history records