Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
73 0x73d1…6903 other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%14W / 58L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
politics 17% −$16
other 11% −$5
sports 2% +$44
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -20.9%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 61 -0.8% -10.2% 20% 13% -8.6%
all 72 -0.8% -10.2% 19% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 11% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 11% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 11% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses14 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage555d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $115 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $120 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $127 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $253 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $248 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $125 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 +$12 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $17 17h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $17 18h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 46h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 47h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $10 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.29 · official $97.29 (match) · 254 history records