Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73d0…6972 weather 593 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$475 (+3%) realized +$480 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%428W / 158L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$48
14 days+$114
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$479
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 +1.1% -8.5% 88% 18% -8.6%
≤30d 338 -2.9% -12.1% 76% 27% -8.3%
≤90d 586 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 34% -6.3%
all 586 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 34% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 34% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 22% -15.3%
15% -24.7% 13% -23.5%
20% -32.0% 9% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$480
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses428 / 158
Open positions7
Markets (closed)586 / 593
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? No 85¢ 100¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$4 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$7 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $137 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $162 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$13 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 38¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 38¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 36¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.15 · official $71.15 (match) · 3500 history records