Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

73 0x73cf…1227 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$287 (-63%) realized −$285 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -93% what you keep after slip

Net edge-93%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$152per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-92.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-91.7%	-92.5%	0%	0%	-94.9%
≤30d	2	-91.7%	-92.5%	0%	0%	-94.9%
≤90d	2	-91.7%	-92.5%	0%	0%	-94.9%
all	2	-91.7%	-92.5%	0%	0%	-94.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-92.5%	0%	-94.9%
10%	-93.2%	0%	-95.4%
15%	-93.9%	0%	-95.9%
20%	-94.5%	0%	-96.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -94% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -92% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$207 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized−$285

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$152

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$18	$16	−$2 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$141	−$118	-84%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$297	−$295	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	2¢	$4	54m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	54m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$17	57m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	1¢	$17	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$19	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	8¢	$123	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$297	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.61 · official $15.61 (match) · 8 history records