Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x73c9…771d other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
world 25% −$13
other 16% −$1
sports 8% +$23
economics 2% +$7
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 75 +0.6% -9.0% 37% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage483d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $144 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $146 −$7 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $304 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $206 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $150 −$4 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $152 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $137 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $178 −$2 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $707 +$19 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $173 +$8 +5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1,172 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $706 +$4 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,043 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,147 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 04 $19 −$1 -8%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 25 $6 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 25 $2 $0 -8%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Jul 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $3 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $115 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $144 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 27h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $95 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $43 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $132 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $166 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $166 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $62 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $26 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $78 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $161 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $146 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $150 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $71 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $73 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $137 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $137 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $47 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $30 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $79 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $39 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $44 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 247 history records