Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
73 0x73c8…8cd8 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,871 (+43%) realized +$4,463 · open +$408
Gross ROI / mkt +139% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +116% what you keep after slip
Net edge+116%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$492
7 days+$492
14 days+$492
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$4,538
crypto 1% −$24
tech 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+116.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.2% -37.8% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤30d 2 -31.2% -37.8% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤90d 16 +213.3% +183.5% 50% 50% +39.1%
all 23 +138.8% +116.1% 43% 39% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +116.1% 39% +22.5%
10% +95.4% 39% +10.7%
15% +76.5% 35% +0.0%
20% +59.2% 30% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +139% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$685) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late +278% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$583 vs −$135 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$922
Realized+$4,463
Unrealized+$408
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage118d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 42¢ 86¢ $398 $810 +$412 (+104%)
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $116 $112 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 23 $1,648 +$523 +32%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 23 $33 −$31 -94%
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? May 01 $39 −$23 -59%
MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $179 −$31 -17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $205 −$162 -79%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,563 −$183 -12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $685 −$189 -28%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 27 $44 +$63 +143%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 22 $53 +$1,328 +2494%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $78 +$887 +1131%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $239 +$602 +252%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $1,879 +$1,249 +66%
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch? Apr 21 $200 −$180 -90%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 20 $15 −$6 -40%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 31 $177 +$286 +161%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $1,097 +$505 +46%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 07 $88 −$73 -83%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 07 $1,106 −$767 -69%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $70 −$70 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Mar 02 $460 −$15 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $80 −$24 -30%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $217 +$13 +6%
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 28 $629 +$374 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes $2 1h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 3h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 5h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 6h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 6h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $70 6h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,071 6h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes $2 9h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No $3 9h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $66 10h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 11h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 11h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 11h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 11h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 12h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 12h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 29h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 32h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 37h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $209 37h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $80 40h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $57 40h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $23 40h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $39 41h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 42h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $204 42h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $204 42h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 42h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $212 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $921.92 · official $921.92 (match) · 251 history records