Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c4…ddf1 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$131 (-9%) realized −$106 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$15
14 days−$30
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$36
politics 30% −$27
sports 5% −$47
world 1% +$11
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$10
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.4% -32.5% 47% 47% -7.7%
≤30d 27 -33.6% -39.9% 44% 44% -12.7%
≤90d 36 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 47% -12.1%
all 48 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 46% -11.0%
10% -16.6% 35% -19.5%
15% -24.7% 31% -27.3%
20% -32.1% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)48 / 64
History coverage178d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 56¢ 48¢ $214 $185 −$28 (-13%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 86¢ $111 $114 +$3 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 25¢ $70 $43 −$27 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 48¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 91¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $532 +$64 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 19 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $1 $0 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? May 02 $1 +$1 +96%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 27? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 25 $1 $0 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 13 $1 +$1 +82%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 13 $1 +$4 +400%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $1 +$4 +400%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $1 $0 +30%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 19 $1 +$6 +614%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jan 19 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $532 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 49¢ $51 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 61¢ $10 12d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.09 · official $625.09 (match) · 162 history records