Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c3…9ed7 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
politics 32% −$7
world 22% −$2
crypto 1% +$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 25 +0.2% -9.4% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$977) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×10.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage97d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o Jun 29 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 29 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $63 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $964 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $73 +$7 +9%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $977 −$2 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $974 −$2 -0%
Will Won Chang-muk win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio May 12 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $119 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in April 2026? Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Mar 24 $157 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 24 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o SELL No 100¢ $68 7m
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,233 13m
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o BUY No 100¢ $18 20m
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,177 25m
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o BUY No 100¢ $23 32m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,181 42m
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o BUY No 100¢ $27 50m
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 1h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $908 1h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $248 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,158 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 39d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $26 39d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 39d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 39d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 39d
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $26 39d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 39d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 40d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 86¢ $63 45d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 45d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 45d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $18 45d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 45d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 86¢ $37 45d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $704 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records