Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c3…fd98 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$242 (-9%) realized −$255 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$197
other 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 40% -20.5%
≤30d 42 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 40% -20.5%
≤90d 42 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 40% -20.5%
all 42 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 40% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 40% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 26% -28.1%
15% -29.9% 21% -35.0%
20% -36.7% 19% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$38 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions11
Markets (closed)42 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Zhibek Kulambayeva 84¢ 100¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Adrienn Nagy 91¢ 100¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 55¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 Under 53¢ 57¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Nick Hardt 65¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Mara Guth 93¢ 88¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Bonzi 61¢ 56¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 18 $50 −$19 -39%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 18 $51 −$11 -22%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $55 −$49 -89%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
ITF Bolszewo: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Amy Sucha Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Bolszewo: Anna Kmiecik vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $37 +$11 +31%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$8 -15%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$3 -5%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $24 +$104 +442%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva BUY Zhibek Kulambayeva 84¢ $50 25m
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 93¢ $50 1h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 91¢ $50 1h
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 61¢ $51 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 65¢ $51 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 67¢ $4 3h
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) BUY Lin 60¢ $51 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $50 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Varvara Panshina 75¢ $50 6h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 65¢ $51 6h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 13h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 13h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 41¢ $51 14h
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault BUY Jonah Braswell 45¢ $51 14h
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 18h
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata BUY Vasco Leote Prata 12¢ $14 19h
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 63¢ $51 20h
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens BUY Amy Stevens 93¢ $50 20h
ITF Bolszewo: Anna Kmiecik vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano BUY Anna Kmiecik 92¢ $50 21h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 76¢ $37 24h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 89¢ $50 25h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 94¢ $50 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 29h
ITF Bolszewo: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Amy Sucha BUY Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur 89¢ $50 29h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ $51 29h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 71¢ $50 39h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 39h
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik BUY Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ $50 43h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Pieri 51¢ $51 43h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 52¢ $51 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.58 · official $495.02 (match) · 85 history records