Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c2…2f7b other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 734d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%51W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$6
politics 26% −$26
world 10% +$2
crypto 8% +$5
tech 6% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 -2.6% -11.9% 96% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

734d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses51 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage734d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.00? Mar 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 5, 2026? Jan 31 $29 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 05 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 03 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Jul 27 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +9%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 9? Apr 22 $32 +$4 +13%
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Apr 04 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $22 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week? Jan 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Base airdrop in 2024? Jan 04 $16 $0 +1%
Is John McAfee alive? Jan 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22? Nov 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 8-15? Nov 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? Nov 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175-199 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Nov 02 $53 $0 +0%
Scroll airdrop in 2024? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? Oct 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125-149 times? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Base airdrop by September 30? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 50+ times September 13-20? Sep 24 $53 $0 +0%
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? Sep 01 $53 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times? Aug 20 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $52 $0 +0%
Trump Family launches coin by Friday? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kanye drop Vultures 2 by Friday? Aug 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Aug 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through July? Aug 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Kamala drop out in July? Aug 03 $30 $0 +0%
Biden drops out by July 19? Jul 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Scroll airdrop by June 30? Jul 10 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $108 27d
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $79 43d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $76 64d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 97d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 99d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 111d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $108 124d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $50 137d
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 163d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $21 193d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 216d
Will no leader be out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $67 239d
Will Trump resign today? BUY No 100¢ $28 287d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? BUY No 96¢ $28 331d
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? BUY No 91¢ $16 373d
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? BUY No 100¢ $16 406d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 9? BUY Down 88¢ $32 433d
Kentucky vs. Tennessee BUY Tennessee 94¢ $6 445d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? BUY No 100¢ $13 460d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 99¢ $22 480d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY Yes 100¢ $11 498d
Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week? BUY No 100¢ $24 508d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $36 515d
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 526d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $44 536d
Base airdrop in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $16 546d
Is John McAfee alive? BUY No 99¢ $27 557d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $87 564d
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Nov 15-22? BUY No 100¢ $47 572d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.90 · official $63.90 (match) · 111 history records