Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73c0…4aa3 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$22,664 (+371%) realized +$22,973 · open −$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$392
7 days+$146
14 days+$97
30 days+$22,726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$1,262
world 29% +$22,019
crypto 26% −$775
other 9% −$41
economics 2% −$74
politics 1% −$67
tech 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -56.2% -60.3% 12% 12% -4.9%
≤30d 24 +46.9% +32.9% 29% 29% +196.3%
≤90d 53 -4.2% -13.3% 28% 26% +139.4%
all 53 -4.2% -13.3% 28% 26% +139.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 26% +139.4%
10% -21.6% 25% +116.5%
15% -29.2% 23% +95.5%
20% -36.1% 21% +76.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +436% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +436% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,688 vs −$71 · ×23.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.36 per $1 lost it wins $9.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized+$22,973
Unrealized−$309
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions7
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage43d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $250 $208 −$42 (-17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 44¢ $247 $183 −$64 (-26%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 16¢ $150 $71 −$79 (-53%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $80 $40 −$40 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $40 $9 −$31 (-79%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 0¢ $51 $8 −$43 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $499 −$499 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 16 $420 −$420 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $398 +$1,543 +388%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $225 −$220 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $500 +$569 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $249 −$246 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 +$13 +118%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $48 −$37 -78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $26 +$23 +89%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $400 +$85 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $422 +$22,517 +5338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 14 $52 +$89 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 14 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 14 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 13 $88 +$28 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 13 $105 +$229 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 13 $26 −$23 -90%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $115 +$78 +67%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $195 +$87 +44%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 09 $90 +$6 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $10 −$6 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $250 54m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $153 55m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,941 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $398 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $50 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $15 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $35 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $1 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $196 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $46 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $225 29h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,069 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $500 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $499 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $249 3d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $250 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 7d
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 12d
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $25 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 44¢ $11 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? SELL No 100¢ $49 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY No 51¢ $26 18d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $420 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $42 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 1¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $559.01 · official $576.34 · 116 history records