Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73be…6d3d other 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 22% −$17
politics 9% −$7
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage128d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $361 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $449 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $247 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $431 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $301 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $188 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $354 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $302 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $182 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $276 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $206 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $281 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $430 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $344 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $316 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 9m
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 5h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 6h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 7h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 11h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 12h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 13h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $49 16h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 18h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 19h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 21h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 28h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 29h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 31h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $50 33h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 42h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 47h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1333 history records