Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73bd…b576 sports 855 markets active 6h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$171 (+3%) realized +$172 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%442W / 407L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$63
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$14
other 7% +$8
world 0% +$6
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -3.7% -12.9% 51% 51% -10.4%
≤30d 524 +2.3% -7.4% 57% 57% -7.8%
≤90d 849 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 51% -9.6%
all 849 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 51% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 51% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 48% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 44% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 38% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$172
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses442 / 407
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions6
Markets (closed)849 / 855
History coverage37d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 849 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 50¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 56¢ 56¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Camila Osorio vs Simona Waltert Camila Osorio 65¢ 64¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Robin Montgomery Jasmine Paolini 41¢ 40¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Katie Swan Irina-Camelia Begu 52¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Wimbledon WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Leolia Jeanjean Leolia Jeanjean 64¢ 62¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sonny Gray: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Jun 28 $5 +$2 +32%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $9 −$6 -67%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $8 +$5 +60%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $9 +$9 +100%
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $5 −$3 -57%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $7 +$11 +153%
Chris Sale: Strikeouts O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $5 +$3 +58%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $8 +$9 +118%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 28 $9 +$1 +13%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $3 +$3 +92%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $3 +$3 +88%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $9 +$6 +71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $9 −$8 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $7 +$6 +88%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $9 −$8 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $9 −$8 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $8 +$7 +86%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $7 +$5 +69%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $7 +$8 +110%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $3 +$3 +92%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 27 $3 +$3 +100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $7 +$7 +96%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $7 +$6 +78%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $7 +$5 +68%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +74%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +77%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $9 +$4 +44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sonny Gray: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 SELL Under 43¢ $2 5h
Sonny Gray: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 5h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $7 5h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 6h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 97¢ $2 6h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 97¢ $12 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 56¢ $9 6h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 97¢ $2 6h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 75¢ $9 7h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 97¢ $18 7h
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 SELL Under 44¢ $2 8h
Emmet Sheehan: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $5 8h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 8h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 97¢ $19 8h
Chris Sale: Strikeouts O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 8h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings SELL Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $8 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 59¢ $8 9h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 9h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 97¢ $16 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 62¢ $5 9h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $8 10h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 10h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 10h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 73¢ $5 19h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings BUY Minnesota Lynx 61¢ $5 19h
Wimbledon WTA: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Katie Swan BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 52¢ $9 22h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Antonia Ruzic 44¢ $9 22h
Wimbledon WTA: Camila Osorio vs Simona Waltert BUY Camila Osorio 65¢ $9 22h
Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Robin Montgomery BUY Jasmine Paolini 41¢ $9 22h
Wimbledon WTA: Veronika Erjavec vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Leolia Jeanjean 64¢ $9 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.01 · official $67.01 (match) · 1962 history records