Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
73 0x73bd…e7ea crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$110 (-1%) realized −$110 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate84%46W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$88
other 24% +$1
politics 8% −$25
economics 3% +$1
finance 2% $0
tech 1% −$5
world 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +10.6% +0.1% 100% 33% -7.3%
≤90d 14 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 14% -8.8%
all 55 -11.1% -19.6% 84% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 5% -10.8%
10% -27.3% 2% -19.3%
15% -34.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -40.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses46 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage541d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $236 $236 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $12 +$4 +35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $335 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 11 $170 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 11 $175 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? Apr 29 $344 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 12 $208 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 10 $306 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 04 $150 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 04 $200 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 21 $180 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 18 $180 +$2 +1%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 15 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on December 8? Dec 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 7? Dec 23 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 07 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 07 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 11 $155 +$2 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Oct 25 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 16 $330 $0 +0%
Solana above $150 on September 8? Sep 25 $190 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 08 $180 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above $3600 on August 13? Aug 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on August 13? Aug 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 12 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? Jul 28 $190 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jul 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jul 18 $120 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 25 $135 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 07 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 10 $190 +$3 +1%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 02 $112 −$12 -11%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 15 $205 −$5 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 15 $196 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Jan 09 $100 +$19 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $156 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 14d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 14d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 24d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 24d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $80 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $12 24d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $335 37d
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $175 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $170 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $344 66d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 92d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $208 99d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $75 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $306 133d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $200 146d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $185 146d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $150 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.45 · official $236.45 (match) · 122 history records