Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73bc…46ce sports 125 markets active 4h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$149,503 (+24%) realized +$150,307 · open −$804
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%60W / 64L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$5,016per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$6,837est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,006
7 days−$99,641
14 days−$64,649
30 days−$30,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$18,537
politics 16% +$186,620
other 5% −$13,085
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -25.2% -32.3% 34% 31% -33.4%
≤30d 121 +7.6% -2.6% 48% 46% -14.9%
≤90d 121 +7.6% -2.6% 48% 46% -14.9%
all 124 +9.8% -0.6% 48% 47% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 47% +13.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 45% +2.2%
15% -18.8% 42% -7.7%
20% -26.8% 35% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$6,539) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +63% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,319 vs −$3,490 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$150,307
Unrealized−$804
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses60 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$6,837
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage165d
Avg bet$5,016
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 14¢ $1,138 $334 −$804 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12,275 +$8,625 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30,409 +$26,763 +88%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,572 +$928 +26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10,118 −$376 -4%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $2 +$1 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33,428 −$27,128 -81%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16,530 +$12,604 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10,381 −$10,222 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,318 −$8,203 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55,809 −$54,968 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $454 −$446 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6,539 +$7,450 +114%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $911 −$401 -44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,114 −$3,062 -98%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $520 +$280 +54%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $11,685 +$6,570 +56%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,784 +$2,317 +83%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $230 +$1,046 +456%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $3,201 −$3,135 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $12 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1,213 −$1,201 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $423 −$420 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $10,608 +$6,638 +63%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $386 −$41 -11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4,246 +$5,251 +124%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $486 −$484 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $241 +$230 +96%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $300 +$246 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4,878 +$7,626 +156%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8,152 −$8,152 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $586 −$581 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $66 +$46 +70%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Lazuli (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 15 $335 −$335 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 15 $532 −$532 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $518 −$518 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $413 −$413 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 15 $467 −$467 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 15 $1,384 −$1,384 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 15 $1,765 −$1,765 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $2,276 −$2,276 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $12,275 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $167 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $82 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $34 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $58 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $184 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $131 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $34 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $124 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $83 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $87 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4,630 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5,762 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.91 · official $284.45 · 2741 history records