Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
73 0x73bc…e60d sports 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$193 (+4%) realized +$161 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate80%43W / 11L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$321
14 days+$249
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$9
sports 43% +$232
politics 11% +$39
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +18.1% +6.8% 85% 60% -1.2%
≤30d 54 +9.9% -0.6% 80% 56% -3.5%
≤90d 54 +9.9% -0.6% 80% 56% -3.5%
all 54 +9.9% -0.6% 80% 56% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 56% -3.5%
10% -10.1% 39% -12.8%
15% -18.8% 24% -21.2%
20% -26.7% 13% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,374
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses43 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions19
Markets (closed)54 / 78
History coverage8d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $637 $613 −$24 (-4%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $167 $176 +$9 (+5%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $173 $174 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 89¢ 99¢ $120 $135 +$15 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+54%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner 4ikibamboni 87¢ 100¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 84¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Portugal 45¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Portugal 20¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Over 38¢ 11¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Over 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil Jun 23 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$20 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +48%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $420 +$38 +9%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $322 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $331 +$84 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $8 +$4 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $84 +$16 +19%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $394 +$16 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $25 +$9 +34%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND W Jun 20 $10 +$18 +178%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $300 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 +$24 +238%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $57 +$23 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $220 +$30 +14%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$29 +41%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 4¢ $4 20m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $6 26m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $6 26m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 87¢ $12 30m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 40m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 20¢ $10 58m
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $10 1h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 92¢ $110 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 9h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 9h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 14¢ $10 10h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $10 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 84¢ $10 20h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Wil BUY 60¢ $10 35h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 83¢ $10 35h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 83¢ $10 35h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $459 35h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,374.40 · official $1,384.51 (match) · 174 history records