Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

73 0x73bb…f68e sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,798 (-12%) realized −$999 · open −$799

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate61%17W / 11L

Whale WR71%big bets

Drawdown85%max

Avg bet$457per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$219est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)-4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-1.5%	-10.8%	54%	54%	-4.6%
≤30d	28	+5.1%	-4.9%	61%	61%	-0.1%
≤90d	28	+5.1%	-4.9%	61%	61%	-0.1%
all	28	+5.1%	-4.9%	61%	61%	-0.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.9%	61%	-0.1%
10%	-14.0%	61%	-9.6%
15%	-22.3%	50%	-18.4%
20%	-29.9%	43%	-26.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 71% (≥$508) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$334 vs −$399 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$999

Unrealized−$799

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses17 / 11

Whale WR (big bets)71%

Est. fees paid−$219

Open positions1

Markets (closed)28 / 34

History coverage9d

Avg bet$457

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown85%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Over	48¢	0¢	$800	$1	−$799 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$504	+$312	+62%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$508	+$584	+115%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$497	−$489	-98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$154	−$154	-100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$703	−$691	-98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 21	$506	−$500	-99%
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	Jun 21	$508	−$500	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$702	+$514	+73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$508	+$556	+109%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$507	+$386	+76%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5	Jun 20	$505	+$219	+43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$492	+$252	+51%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$407	+$476	+117%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$604	−$285	-47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$309	+$107	+34%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$500	+$201	+40%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$371	+$240	+64%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U	Jun 18	$504	+$524	+104%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Arge	Jun 17	$508	+$618	+122%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: UD Almería O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$276	−$276	-100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$385	−$385	-100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 17	$414	−$414	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$440	−$440	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$256	−$256	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$595	+$443	+74%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$330	+$85	+26%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$212	+$114	+54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$222	+$54	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$812	1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	100¢	$815	3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	61¢	$504	4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND	BUY	36¢	$612	4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL	99¢	$1,093	21h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	45¢	$508	42h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Urug	BUY	25¢	$460	2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$497	2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$703	2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	57¢	$506	2d
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	BUY Spain	45¢	$508	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	95¢	$1,216	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	54¢	$702	2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	52¢	$507	2d
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$893	3d
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$507	3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	BUY	47¢	$508	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$724	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	92¢	$743	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5	BUY Over	69¢	$505	3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$492	3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	45¢	$407	4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	28¢	$319	4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$604	4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Will Canada win	BUY	51¢	$319	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	86¢	$416	5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$701	5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	70¢	$500	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$309	5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$611	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $600.83 · 58 history records