Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73b7…78d3 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%39W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$18
other 24% −$6
politics 13% +$6
sports 12% −$2
economics 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
culture 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 23 -2.3% -11.6% 39% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 34% 2% -10.0%
all 110 -5.2% -14.2% 35% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 4% -10.3%
10% -22.4% 2% -18.9%
15% -29.9% 1% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses39 / 71
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage531d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $72 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $104 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $117 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $47 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $59 −$3 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $126 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $22 −$5 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $17 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $4 $0 -12%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $105 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $3 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $55 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 -7%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3 $0 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $8 $0 -6%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $2 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $3 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $6 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $5 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $31 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $23 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $9 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $34 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records