Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x73b7…e4e7 world 6 markets active 4h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23,565 (+40%) realized +$23,582 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$9,834per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$84,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$26,787
world 2% −$758
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.1% +33.1% 100% 100% +33.1%
≤30d 1 +47.1% +33.1% 100% 100% +33.1%
≤90d 1 +47.1% +33.1% 100% 100% +33.1%
all 5 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 40% +31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.7% 40% +31.1%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 40% +18.6%
15% -42.6% 20% +7.1%
20% -48.2% 0% -3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +45% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8,948 vs −$400 · ×22.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.59 per $1 lost it wins $33.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$84,486
Realized+$23,582
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage112d
Avg bet$9,834
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $500 $483 −$17 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57,505 +$26,804 +47%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $99 −$99 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $700 −$700 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Feb 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Feb 28 $100 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10,905 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $36,532 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $9,989 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $500 112d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $99 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 4¢ $500 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 3? BUY No 94¢ $100 112d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? BUY No 74¢ $100 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 3¢ $200 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84,485.99 · official $84,485.99 (match) · 123 history records