Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73b2…092d crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,401 (-56%) realized −$3,401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$916
sports 28% −$1,332
other 26% −$1,431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -25.0% -32.2% 20% 20% -69.4%
≤30d 50 -25.0% -32.2% 20% 20% -69.4%
≤90d 50 -25.0% -32.2% 20% 20% -69.4%
all 50 -25.0% -32.2% 20% 20% -69.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 20% -69.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 16% -72.3%
15% -44.6% 16% -75.0%
20% -50.0% 14% -77.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$116 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage4d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $156 +$33 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $262 +$76 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$28 -27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$67 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $515 −$502 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $487 −$473 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $923 −$566 -61%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $495 −$395 -80%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $196 −$191 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $111 −$105 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $145 −$142 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $156 −$147 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$275 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$83 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$192 +725%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$152 +574%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $120 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $113 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $203 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $75 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $74 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $102 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $94 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records