Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73b1…a223 politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$5
other 19% −$2
sports 19% −$2
world 14% −$1
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 54 -8.6% -17.3% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 48
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage237d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $181 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $469 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $97 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $91 $0 -0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $179 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $92 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $87 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 18 $1 $0 -33%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $2 $0 -17%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $1 $0 -50%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $94 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 28h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $83 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $83 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 43d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 113d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $88 128d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $88 133d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 136d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 138d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 143d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 144d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $90 146d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $90 147d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 148d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $91 148d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 148d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 149d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.21 · official $2.21 (match) · 272 history records