Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73ae…e665 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$13
other 3% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.3% -14.4% 15% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 13 -5.3% -14.4% 15% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 13 -5.3% -14.4% 15% 0% -11.3%
all 13 -5.3% -14.4% 15% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -11.3%
10% -22.5% 0% -19.8%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.5%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $85 −$45 -53%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $73 $0 -0%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $385 $0 -0%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $756 +$4 +0%
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 26 $106 $0 -0%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $122 −$2 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $466 −$7 -1%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $163 +$2 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $14 $0 -1%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $21 −$2 -11%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $287 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $220 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $220 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 32¢ $40 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $29 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 55¢ $385 2h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $85 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $3 5h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $41 5h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $270 6h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $273 6h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $73 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $385 7h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL Yellow Submarine 44¢ $2 9h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $2 10h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $63 12h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Under 70¢ $490 12h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL No 40¢ $120 12h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $2 13h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $3 13h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $6 13h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $50 13h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $20 13h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $41 13h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $483 13h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $1 13h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $5 13h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $11 14h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $13 15h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $5 15h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $1 15h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $5 15h
Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) SELL MODUS 51¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records