trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 25% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 33% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +165.6% | +140.3% | 33% | 8% | -8.6% |
| all | 23 | +86.9% | +69.1% | 52% | 9% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +69.1% | 9% | -8.4% |
| 10% | +52.9% | 4% | -17.2% |
| 15% | +38.1% | 4% | -25.2% |
| 20% | +24.6% | 4% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | No | 94¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 10¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 25 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 24 | $23 | +$1 | +3% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 27 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 26 | $104 | +$2 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 26 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 25 | $30 | +$3 | +8% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 24 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $46 | +$2 | +4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | May 22 | $24 | −$3 | -11% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? | May 06 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 31 | $14 | +$2 | +13% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 27 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? | Mar 18 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? | Mar 17 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | -0% |