Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73a9…058b other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 51L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$13
other 13% −$4
politics 13% −$8
sports 2% +$98
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 20 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 55 +4.4% -5.6% 25% 18% -8.2%
all 69 +5.4% -4.7% 26% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 16% -9.2%
10% -13.8% 16% -17.9%
15% -22.1% 13% -25.8%
20% -29.8% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage607d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $6 +$7 +101%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $185 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $147 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $295 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $145 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 25 $302 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $147 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$8 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $16 +$8 +52%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$9 +104%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $13 +$4 +31%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 06 $23 +$26 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 12h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 12h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $6 33h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 36h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 36h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $103 4d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 10d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $6 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.06 · official $147.06 (match) · 284 history records