Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73a8…a8b7 weather 1193 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-5%) realized −$407 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%468W / 710L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$5
14 days−$111
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$487
crypto 21% −$27
world 2% +$18
other 1% +$24
finance 1% +$5
tech 0% −$3
sports 0% −$12
economics 0% −$11
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -0.4% -9.9% 63% 56% -9.1%
≤30d 306 -13.2% -21.5% 48% 43% -12.7%
≤90d 1177 -15.5% -23.5% 40% 37% -15.0%
all 1178 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 37% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 37% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 29% -23.3%
15% -37.6% 24% -30.7%
20% -43.7% 19% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$407
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses468 / 710
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1178 / 1193
History coverage106d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 83¢ 100¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 87¢ 100¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026? Yes 75¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026? Yes 88¢ 76¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 75¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 407 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -33%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 14 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 87¢ $5 2m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 3m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 58¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL No 27¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $6 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 73¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.38 · official $159.48 (match) · 3016 history records