Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73a3…ee24 other 30 markets active 14h ago coverage 98d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,114 (+7%) realized +$8,975 · open −$2,861
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,830per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$56,428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,000
14 days+$3,000
30 days+$3,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$8,892
sports 4% −$2,335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤30d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤90d 3 +203.5% +174.6% 100% 100% +215.7%
all 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 33% +24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 33% +24.7%
10% -17.2% 33% +12.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 33% +1.8%
20% -32.6% 33% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +249% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
97.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,233 vs −$2,547 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$56,428
Realized+$8,975
Unrealized−$2,861
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)9 / 30
History coverage98d
Avg bet$2,830
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $9,300 $9,275 −$25 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $7,527 $6,007 −$1,519 (-20%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7,100 $5,900 −$1,200 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $6,150 $5,275 −$875 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $4,640 $4,605 −$35 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,912 $4,126 +$1,213 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3,400 $3,462 +$62 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2,800 $2,825 +$25 (+1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3,000 $2,500 −$500 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,434 $2,377 +$943 (+66%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,333 $2,000 +$667 (+50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,643 $1,625 −$18 (-1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1,250 +$250 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $983 $1,214 +$231 (+24%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,500 $750 −$750 (-50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $750 −$250 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,250 $625 −$625 (-50%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $292 $323 +$31 (+11%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $39 +$13 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,500 +$3,000 +67%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 15 $4,964 +$21,160 +426%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 28 $460 +$540 +117%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $4,990 −$4,990 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $809 −$808 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $1,948 −$1,948 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $5,000 −$4,663 -93%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 19 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 19 $1,475 −$1,475 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $427 13h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 15h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 19h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 19h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,000 21h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 21h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $634 21h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $189 21h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $177 21h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 21h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,427.82 · official $56,427.82 (match) · 2954 history records