Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73a1…eed7 sports 35 markets active 5d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-7%) realized −$1 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$6
sports 31% +$1
crypto 12% $0
world 9% +$2
politics 6% −$1
tech 4% $0
economics 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 31% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 30 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 37% -14.2%
all 30 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 37% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 37% -14.2%
10% -27.5% 23% -22.4%
15% -34.5% 23% -29.9%
20% -40.9% 23% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +85%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +84%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +13%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 Jun 01 $1 +$1 +65%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $1 +$3 +316%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 97¢ $1 4d
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 98¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 53¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 2¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 14d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 14d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 79¢ $1 14d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 58¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.21 · official $3.21 (match) · 78 history records