Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
73 0x73a0…9342 crypto 246 markets active 4h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,019 (+1%) realized +$1,019 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate72%187W / 73L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$643per market
Trades / day63.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435
7 days−$393
14 days−$312
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$84
other 28% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +70.3% +54.1% 56% 8% -10.8%
≤30d 160 +30.3% +17.9% 70% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 260 +23.8% +12.0% 72% 5% -9.8%
all 260 +23.8% +12.0% 72% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 5% -9.8%
10% +1.3% 5% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -17.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$895) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,019
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses187 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 246
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$643
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +1824%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 27? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -479%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 10? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -4486%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +3779%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $244 −$244 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 9? Jun 17 $1 +$10 +833%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 23? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,468 −$17 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,268 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $902 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $296 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,294 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,056 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $680 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $135 −$4 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $445 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1,350 −$6 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $940 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $705 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,309 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $963 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 13 $198 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 13 $209 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5,422 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1,787 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $462 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $716 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $391 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $41 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $58 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $97 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $887 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $284 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $951 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $83 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $187 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $552 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $179 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,189 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $19 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $48 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $201 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $102 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $100 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $116 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $609 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 96¢ $385 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $385 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $66 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 95¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records