trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 51¢ | 51¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 72¢ | 72¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | No | 50¢ | 49¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | $3 | $6 | +$3 (+101%) |
| Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 57¢ | 22¢ | $3 | $1 | −$2 (-61%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 | Under | 73¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$3 | -95% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $6 | +$3 | +41% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 | Jun 13 | $21 | −$20 | -95% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -95% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 | Jun 12 | $3 | +$1 | +30% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 | Jun 12 | $21 | +$2 | +9% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 | Jun 11 | $3 | +$1 | +37% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -26.1% | -33.1% | 57% | 43% | -39.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -26.1% | -33.1% | 57% | 43% | -39.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -26.1% | -33.1% | 57% | 43% | -39.0% |
| all | 7 | -26.1% | -33.1% | 57% | 43% | -39.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.1% | 43% | -39.0% |
| 10% | -39.5% | 43% | -44.9% |
| 15% | -45.3% | 29% | -50.2% |
| 20% | -50.7% | 0% | -55.1% |