Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7399…50a3
other · 13 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$16 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$50
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 6 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 50¢ 49¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+101%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 73¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +41%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $21 +$2 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% −$13
other 26% −$5
crypto 19% $0
culture 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -26.1% -33.1% 57% 43% -39.0%
≤30d 7 -26.1% -33.1% 57% 43% -39.0%
≤90d 7 -26.1% -33.1% 57% 43% -39.0%
all 7 -26.1% -33.1% 57% 43% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 43% -39.0%
10% -39.5% 43% -44.9%
15% -45.3% 29% -50.2%
20% -50.7% 0% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.04 · official $50.04 (match) · 19 history records